Population Growth, Crop Production, and Fertilizer Use Since 1960
Since 1960, the world’s demand for crops has skyrocketed, fueled by a booming population that now exceeds 8 billion, rising incomes, and expanding uses for agricultural products.
This visualization, created in partnership with BHP, charts the trends of population growth, crop production, and potash demand over six decades.
Six Decades of Growth
The relationship between population growth, crop production, and fertilizer demand is closely interconnected.
The growth rate of these three variables, however, has not been equal.
BHP’s analysis reveals that potash demand has significantly outpaced both crop production and population growth since 1960, highlighting its essential role in feeding a growing global population.
| Metric | CAGR (1960–2007) | CAGR (2008–2023) |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Crop Production | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Potash Fertilizer Demand | 2.6% | 3.0% |
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the average rate at which a value grows annually over a specified period.
The data reveals that despite significant supply disruptions, including the collapse of the Soviet Union—a major potash-producing region—and the 2008 financial crisis, the average annual growth rate of potash demand has consistently surpassed both population growth and crop production.
The Future of Modern Agriculture
By 2050, the global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion, potentially presenting significant challenges in meeting the world’s growing food demands. Farmers are expected to face mounting pressures to produce more food on increasingly limited arable land, making innovation and sustainable practices essential to maximizing yields.
Potash—a potassium-rich mineral used to enhance soil fertility and improve crop yields—can play a pivotal role in addressing these challenges.
In fact, BHP expects global demand for potash to grow by around 70% by 2050, driven by global megatrends such as rising populations, improving living standards, changing diets, and the need to improve the productivity of existing land.
Get more potash insights in BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook.
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