Charting How U.S. Tariffs Will Hit Key Products

Charting How U.S. Tariffs Will Hit Key Products

U.S. tariffs have climbed to an average rate of 18.6%—the highest since 1933. But what does this mean for everyday consumers?

This visualization, developed in collaboration with the Hinrich Foundation, highlights major goods expected to face sustained price increases due to rising tariffs. Based on data from the Yale Budget Lab, it explores both short-term shocks and longer-term inflationary effects.

Tariffs & Inflation

Tariffs drive inflation by raising the cost of imported goods, pushing prices higher for both consumers and businesses that rely on them. In the short run, companies often pass these increased input costs directly onto consumers, creating immediate price spikes. 

Over time, the effects compound: with less competition from foreign producers, domestic firms may raise prices as well. Retaliatory tariffs and global supply chain disruptions can further intensify these inflationary pressures.

Short-Term Price Hikes

Tariffs currently affect a wide range of countries and goods. As a result, short-term price increases are expected across numerous sectors. These spikes are most pronounced early on, as businesses have limited time or flexibility to pivot to alternative sources. In the longer term, they can adjust whether by sourcing domestically or eliminating certain inputs altogether.

Among the hardest-hit categories are primary goods like metals, which are projected to rise by 41.0%, and crops, expected to climb by 31.5%. Consumer goods will also be significantly affected: clothing prices could jump 36.6%, electronics 17.0%, and motor vehicles 12.4%.

Industrial products won’t be spared either. Electrical equipment is expected to see a 26.4% increase, followed by machinery (14.2%), transport equipment (10.8%), and other manufactured goods (11.0%). With these goods playing a central role in essentials such as food, transportation, and electronics, the impact on both consumers and businesses will be tangible.

Long-Term Price Hike Persistence

Even after markets adjust and producers shift to cheaper alternatives, the price hikes are expected to persist. For every major product category, long-term increases range from approximately 6% to 20%. 

Metals (17.3%) and crops (15.1%) remain among the top long-run inflation drivers. Clothing (18.0%), electrical equipment (12.5%), and electronics (7.7%) are also set to remain significantly more expensive. 

Industrial categories like machinery (8.5%), transport equipment (6.4%), and manufactured goods (5.8%) will continue to see elevated prices, and motor vehicles are projected to be 9.4% costlier in the long term.

Inflation: Higher for Longer

These persistent price hikes mean that both consumers and businesses will continue to bear the financial burden of elevated costs. Over time, this could dampen consumer spending, strain profit margins, and slow broader economic growth.

Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the war on global trade.