Charted: A Slow-Growth Era for the S&P 500?

Charted: A Slow-Growth Era for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 delivered impressive gains in 2023 and 2024, and is on pace to climb nearly 10% in 2025. But how much longer can this momentum last?

In partnership with Global X, this visualization illustrates why the index may be approaching a slower-growth phase. Using data from Goldman Sachs, it highlights how the share of companies able to sustain 10%+ annual growth shrinks dramatically as the number of consecutive years increases.

What Is the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 is a leading U.S. stock market index that tracks the performance of approximately 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with larger market caps have a bigger influence on the index’s movement.

As of September, the S&P 500 was up nearly 10% for the year. If this pace holds, it would mark the index’s third straight year of robust gains—and its eighth out of the past 10.

Consecutive Years of Growth

Bull markets—periods characterized by sustained rising prices—can lose momentum over time. One insightful way to analyze this is by examining the share of companies that consistently achieve high growth over time.

It’s remarkably common for companies to achieve 10% or more growth in a single year—Goldman Sachs research shows that up to 91% of firms may reach that threshold at some point (for at least one consecutive year). However, it’s extraordinarily rare for companies to sustain that pace annually over long periods of time.

When you extend the window to 10 consecutive years, the share drops sharply to only about 11%. This steep decline underscores how maintaining double-digit growth long-term is exceptionally difficult.

This trend is also true in the 20%-plus growth category as well. The share of companies able to maintain that for one year sits around 72% and then drops dramatically to 3% after 10 consecutive years.

Investing in Covered Calls

Investing in a covered call ETF can provide investors with an additional layer of income and diversification. This could be especially valuable if the S&P 500 were to enter a slower growth phase.

By writing call options on the stocks it holds, a covered call ETF generates option premiums that are paid out to investors. This helps to cushion returns when equity gains moderate.

This strategy not only broadens a portfolio beyond simple price appreciation but also offers a potential buffer against volatility.

Learn more about the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call UCITS ETF (QYLD) and the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call UCITS ETF (XYLU).